What's in Store for eBooks in 2012?

What's in store for eBooks in 2012? Wouldn't we all like to peer into a crystal ball for the answer to that question? As both a writer and a publisher, I'd like to make a few observations, as well as a few predictions.

Without a doubt, 2010 was a breakout year for eBooks. But that was apparently just the beginning. In 2011, the eBook revolution gained even more steam with some sellers and authors eclipsing 2010 sales by 300 per cent or more! My modest prediction is that this trend will continue in 2012 -- for some.

Of course one need not be a statistical genius to make such a prediction; a simple study of the industry's market analysts will tell you that the eBook revolution is still in the first quarter of a ten-year expansion that, when all is said and done, will see the sector grow by at least 2,500 per cent. And that's not only a lot of eBooks, but it represents a full circle, fundamental shift in the way literature is produced, published, distributed and sold. Not since the invention of Gutenberg's printing press has an advance in technology impacted not only what people read, but also how they read it.

Permit me, if you will, to relate a bit of history: During the first year that the printing press went into service printing books, the literacy level in Europe increased a whopping 20 per cent. Imagine that! Suddenly the thinkers and artists of the time enjoyed mass distribution, and the population benefited greatly. It is also very likely that that single invention was responsible for the Protestant Revolution, which forever changed the face of the Christian Church. No small feat.

Not insignificantly, something similar is underway with the production and distribution of eBooks. Not only has digital publishing opened the field to many more authors, but it has also enabled those once unable to acquire books to have them with the click of a mouse. It is difficult to argue the benefit to mankind. And it is also impossible to predict the impact such a development might have on world culture.

Yet, if you regularly log onto Facebook or other social media, and your passion is books and literature, it may seem to you as if suddenly everyone is a writer with an eBook to sell. And it's true! With the emergence of open source publishing such as Smashwords, Amazon KDP or Banes & Noble’s PubIt, virtually anyone can publish an eBook and offer it to the world via these powerful retailer/publishers. So the days when a manuscript went through a stringent vetting process at the hands of an established publisher is probably over -- at least in part.

Of course the agency model publishers are still in the publishing business -- some are embracing eBooks at lightning speed, while others are a little slower to offer their titles in digital formats -- and the titles they release continue to dominate the store displays of big barn booksellers as well as their web sites. But I suspect such publishers are hearing footsteps, those of so-called indie authors and small digital publishing enterprises (such as Open Books), and those well-known big publishers seem very keen on establishing a class system of sorts.

So, what sort of division is emerging? And what will that division, should it take hold, mean to the likes of the vast field of new authors and small publishers?

The division that I see emerging is two-fold: the first distinction made is quality of the work, from the writing itself to production; and the second one is price. Anyone who has recently acquired an eReader knows that it is only natural to fill it up (most accommodate 2,000 books or more) with cheap eBooks—and there is certainly no shortage of 99-cent (or even free) eBooks to download. Prices ascend from there to $2.99, $4.99 and higher. At the top of the pyramid are the books published by the agency model publishers, names we have known for decades or longer, priced from $9.99 all the way up to typical hardback prices.

Many readers who have downloaded these cheap eBooks have been disappointed by the quality. I agree; many such books are poorly written, editing is nonexistent, and even the production is suspect. Hence, the argument of agency publishers that their publications are still the best in the business bears consideration. After all, they have experienced staff with first-rate skills, so naturally the books they produce, whether eBooks or tree books, are professionally rendered. Still, the public apparently has an appetite for something more, and the indie author, as well as small ePublishers, are fulfilling that appetite -- with ever-increasing frequency.

What is the real correlation between price and quality? In truth, there is no good answer to that question. While many of the new self-publishing authors leave a lot to be desired concerning this issue, others do an excellent job of not only writing but also publishing their work. What's more, many of those authors engage one-to-one with their readers to cultivate a niche audience. This practice offers readers an extra dimension in the reading experience, one that many find pleasurable and now even necessary. Meantime, the agency model publishers cling rather tenaciously to their reputations as well as to their somewhat tired business models. Which segment will eventually win this battle? The answer to that question remains in the balance and is, at least in part, in the hands of both consumers and the large online sellers. 

In my opinion, a level playing field is in the best interest of all concerned: writers, publishers and retailers. Even if there is a quality difference, the cream always floats to the top. Ironically, many so-called amateurs are characterizing themselves as such with their lower price schemes. Volume sales generated by lower prices might reach more readers, but it also devalues the work of all writers. And writers, as such, do not deserve that. How low might eBook prices fall? The answer seems plain enough: zero. At least with the so-called lower tier of author-publishers. Meanwhile, the large online retailers will probably favor agency model publishers and small digital publishers who do a high-quality job and who are committed to holding up prices, because that is the only way the retailers make a profit. Giving books away seems nice indeed until one stops to consider what the end result for writers will be -- worthlessness.

So the class war is on, and with it a full-blown price war. Meanwhile, readers and book buyers are enjoying selection at a level never before seen. As a writer and a publisher, I certainly hope that the diversity continues, and I also wish all writers and small publishers success. I ask also that writers and publishers alike in this new age of digital publishing and distribution take stock of their intrinsic worth. The ePublishing world may suddenly be filled with everybody’s-a-writer writers, and with anyone-can-publish publishers, but quality must (and will) prevail. At what price, I cannot determine at present.